Hockey and the Jockey: Why Driver-Based Forecasting Beats Wishful Thinking
Bob had made a lot of money selling enterprise performance management software.
Sales was our Achilles heel so when he approached me for a job I was surprised.
We were a start-up. Not in his league.
But he convinced us. Three months of retainer was all he needed. After that commissions
would flow and we would all be laughing.
Three months flew by.
Over Easter weekend I finally sat down. No meetings no distractions. And ran the numbers.
Zero.
There was not a single sale from Bob.
The only sales we did get came from old colleagues of mine referring me directly.
Nothing to do with Bob.
Whenever we asked about the pipeline his answer was always the same
“I have emailed so and so and I am just waiting to hear back”
The Easter Surprise
Month four rolled around. Then month five.
Bob reassured us that the market was just a bit slow.
Apparently the Easter holidays had caught everyone off guard that year
like the government forgot to put them on the calendar.
(It was after all a total shock to Bobs process.)
Enter the Hockey Stick
Then came the promise of all promises
the hockey stick.
Slow start sure. But the big spike was coming.
Sales would explode in the final stretch. Just you wait.
We stopped believing in hockey sticks and went back to what we do best. Excel jockey work.
The Forecast That Told the Truth
We asked for data not promises.
We built our own simple driver-based sales pipeline:
- Customer name
- Quantity × Price
- Percentage completion of deals
- Expected landing date
When we plotted the curve the hockey stick had vanished.
Bob had been skating on thin ice for too long.
It was an own goal.
The School of Common Sense
This was not rocket science.
It came from the school of common sense.
Bob and I were both using Excel
though to be fair he might have been on Excel 2013.1
while I was on the vastly superior 2013.2.
Maybe that minor upgrade was the key difference between a hockey stick fantasy and a proper forecast.
Or maybe it was just more science and less bias.
The Aftermath
Bob did not last. He eventually found greener pastures
but the lesson he left us with has stuck for years:
Hope is not a forecast.
The Lesson for Finance Teams
Driver based forecasting strips out the emotion and reveals reality.
If you want to see the future stop betting on hockey sticks and start building the jockey's model
the one based on drivers not dreams.
This story is inspired by FP and AI Podcast Episode 3 with Andrew Brown where we talk about the power of driver-based forecasting and how finance teams can lead with clarity.
